Media Relations: media commentary and criticism

Sunday, January 29, 2012

film

-- film -- academy awards predictions, recalibrated

18th Annual Screen Actor Guild Awards, nominees and recipients

So, in the wake of the SAG Awards, which, at least in acting categories, are a slightly better predictor than the Golden Globes and the raft of critics awards -- given that they're voted on by substantially, if not entirely, the same people who vote for the Academy Awards -- have my thoughts of who will win changed at all?

Well ... somewhat. After all, given the limited number of categories, one film did, after all, steamroll the others, and it was ... The Help? Really? You're not just pulling my leg here? ... Well, all-righty, then. So, recalibrating:

Best PIcture: Oriignally thought to be a dogfight between "The Artist" and "The Descendants", it's now looking like it may be a dogfight between "The Artist" and "The Help", since "The Descendants" got clean shut out -- though, granted, it only had two nominations in the SAG Awards, Best Actor and Best Film Ensemble. For the moment, I'm sticking with "The Artist" -- because it is, after all, ART with a capital ART, and the Academy loves ART -- but a win by "The Help" wouldn't surprise me now.

Best Director: No change. The director of "The Help" wasn't nominated, or else I might be changing my mind a bit.

Best Actor: No change; still picking Dujardin narrowly over Clooney.

Best Actress: Apparently, this is a three-woman race, given that Viola Davis took the SAG Award. I suspect what may be swaying voters, if they are being swayed, is purely the fact that more of them have actually seen Davis' performance; "Albert Nobbs" and "Iron Lady" never opened all that wide, and who knows how many members have made their way through the pile of screeners to see Close and Streep. So ... let's say Davis narrowly over Close, for the moment.

Supporting Actor: No change. Plummer narrowly over Von Sydow.

Supporting Actress: Apparently, this really is Octavia Spencer's year. Therefore, changed to predicting Spencer romping past Bejo and McTeer. (Also, purely a sidenote: Alec Baldwin is a dick. But then, we knew that, didn't we?)

So, we'll see how things work out in the acting categories next month, won't we?

Posted by iain at 09:22 PM in category film